By Oby Ndukwe
The introduction of the electronic device known as the Card Reader further gave our process some credibility even though, the Nigerian political class in their characteristic manner, must find alternative ways to defy its proper usage as evidenced during the March 28, 2015 Presidential and National Assembly elections.
Though INEC is yet to announce the results of the election, there are indications that the incumbent president and flag bearer of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is on his way out of Nigeria's seat of power, Aso Rock. His expected loss at the polls was one of the major factors that led to the postponement of the earlier scheduled February 14 elections. Opinion polls as well as the opposition his campaign train received in most of the Northern parts of the country was a clear indication that if the elections were conducted on February 14, he would not only lose, but would have lost irreparably.
His spin doctors went to work and the elections were postponed on grounds of security challenges in three states of the North East zone, which are the stronghold of his main challenger, General Muhammadu Buhari, rtd. While the Service Chiefs had asked for six weeks to be able to route out the dreaded Boko Haram terrorist group which had taken over some towns in the three states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, there was a resolve by Jonathan's men to penetrate the South West, another stronghold Of Buhari's APC. The President had visited Lagos state over four times within the period and millions of dollars were said to have been doled out to traditional rulers, groups as well as the Oodua Peoples Congress, a defunct militant group in the South West.
Though the South East was said to have not received as much but the regional militant group, Movement for the Actualization of Biafra, MASSOB was said to have also received huge sums of money in a bid to either compel Jega to resign or stop the use of the Card Reader.
In Jonathan's South South zone, the ex-militants in the Niger Delta who have been under the heavily funded amnesty program were asked to return to the creeks, all in a bid to ensure the victory of the president in the area especially in Rivers State, the home state of his wife, Patience and his most vocal critic, Gov. Rotimi Amaechi.
The battle for the soul of Rivers seemed to be Jonathan's major focus considering the voting strength here where in 2003, 2007 and 2011, the state had consistently recorded a hundred per cent votes for the PDP. But in 2015, the odds are against Jonathan, as he seems to have lost his dose of good luck to the opposition APC, led by the state governor, Rotimi Amaechi.
What would have been a roller coaster ride for Jonathan is now the fiercest challenge to his electoral victory in his immediate constituency.
The rivalry between the governor and Mrs. Jonathan, both who are indigenes of the state, had culminated to a protracted battle which left Jonathan with no choice than to throw his weight behind his wife and abandon his long time arch supporter and points man in the region. The antidote to Amaechi would be to strip him off every access to security powers in spite of the constitutional provision that mandates him as the Chief Security Officer of the state. The other strategy was to hire his former hatchet man and leader of his political group, Nyesom Wike, who was somewhat foisted on the PDP in the state as its governorship candidate, against the principle of zoning and rotation which ordinarily should have been the turn of Jonathan's kinsmen, the Ijaws or the Riverine people to produce the next governor of the state. It was his price for leading the revolt against his former boss and political leader.
The PDP led by Wike had long bragged to deliver the popular 2 million votes to Jonathan in the state. Even his wife, who is not a registered voter in the state, had assured her husband during a rally in Port Harcourt, that the PDP would deliver a whopping 2.4 million votes to him. Many watched to see if truly, their claim that there was no opposition in the state was true or just a mere campaign gimmick. With the already soured relationship between Amaechi's party, APC and the Rivers State command of the Nigerian Police, as well as the presence of the Chief of Army Staff, Kenneth Minimah, who hails from Opobo/Nkoro, the home of Dakuku Peterside, the guber candidate of the APC, Wike and his handful of cabals were set to prove their claims of supremacy against the governor.
The militants had returned and all manner of arms and ammunitions are in their possession. Gun boats which were acquired by NIMASA for the security of the waterways were all channeled to the creeks of the sea around the state. Soldiers were deployed despite several court orders which ruled that they were not to be used for the purpose of elections. As expected, the Police was compromised as several stalwarts and members of the APC were arrested, detained on trumped up charges, while in some cases, others were murdered while the Police feigned ignorance.
In spite of persistent alarms raised by the APC through its State Chairman, Ibiamu Ikanya and the Rivers State Commissioner for Information, Ibim Semenitari, no arrests were made in connection with the violence and impunity in the state against the ruling APC in the state.
The last two weeks to the presidential election was a bloody one for residents of the state as gun men were shooting sporadically in the air at different times. Millions of naira was mapped out through the Niger Delta Development Commission, NDDC, for the Armageddon that would be unleashed during the presidential election. For Jonathan, he must win at all costs in Rivers state to enable him a comfortable cruise in the battle against a more formidable, Buhari.
The PDP, of course had their way as the less powerful APC stalwarts went into hiding, especially, after an assassination attempt on the governor during one of his last campaigns in Wike's stronghold, Obio/Akpor. Those who were arrested and detained including some local government Chairmen and the State Agent of the APC, are yet to be released from custody. the President and his men lost focus and just like a popular proverb, it was a case of a man whose house was on fire and he was busy chasing rats, they deployed all resources to win the votes in Rivers State while they lost the larger votes from the West and the North. In all, there were no elections in most parts of the state.
With reports of a dismal performance in the South West and the North, including Benue State, the home Of Senate President, David Mark, by Jonathan's party, PDP, the desperation to win Rivers state may have contributed to the present situation which has led to an emergency security meeting in Abuja, now. David Mark who is said to be visibly angry was quoted as having told the president that his failure to reconcile with Amaechi had caused the misfortune on the party.
Could it be that Amaechi, the unrepentant critic and estranged brother of President Jonathan was a blessing in disguise for the opposition APC? If Jonathan and his men had not been distracted by the ' ranting' of the governor, as they described him, he may not have suffered a larger defeat and for the first time in the history of our nascent democracy, an incumbent President would lose a reelection bid to an opponent who has been described as a 'serial loser'.
Jonathan should have listened to the advice of the likes General Ibrahim Babangida and President Olusegun Obasanjo who had warned him of the dire consequences of losing Amaechi to the opposition party.
Now that the chickens have come home to roost, and no matter what the result from Rivers State would be made to show, one thing is sacrosanct and cannot be disputed, that the governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, even if he fails to deliver the votes to Buhari, was a complete distraction in the battle to defeat Buhari and for President Jonathan to get reelected.
Jonathan should have realized this earlier than now!
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